Thoughts from June 17, 2020

  1. Hertz front and center!

Well someone at the SEC finally watched CNBC and took notice that maybe the Hertz offering is bad for the general pubic.  Amazingly, the stock rocketed 21% higher this morning before settling around yesterday’s close price.  Anyone trading this stock at this point would be better off finding a roulette table!

  1. SMCCF Re-Announced and Re-Ignites the stock market

With the stock market bulls running out of steam (and Wall Street justifying current levels based on earnings in 2022), the Fed had to come to the rescue.  This time, the program was not new, but they needed to re-announce it since they took their time to actually DO anything.  Consequently, the stock market was re-ignited for one day as media pundits discussed the program already discussed 8 weeks ago that was part of the Fed acronym bombardment.  Nothing new to see here…except they actually started the program and are illegally buying corporate bonds. Did I say illegal?  Oh that’s right.  According to the Federal Reserve Act, they are not allowed to buy corporate bonds – they are only allowed to buy gvt and mortgage securities.  But they are anyway.  Why?  Because no one dares stop them.  Congress has the power but not the backbone.  But I digress…maybe we will get into that another time.

  1. Corporate bond yields hit all-time lows.

It is now cheaper for a lot of companies to borrow than at anytime in history!  Think of that.  In the midst (some even say the beginning) of a pandemic/depression, when companies are becoming evermore financially fragile, they can now borrow MORE $ EVEN MORE CHEAPLY!!!!  My clients and followers know my concerns about the exponentially growing debt burden around the globe, and this is just one more example of the irrationality of the financial system.  Sadly, it has been the actions of Reserve Banks around the world that have created this, and it is hard to imagine how it ends without painful consequences.

  1. Nikola – another auto company worth more than Ford?

Interested in buying a “green” technology company focused on the truck industry?  Not, not Tesla.  Nikola.  When I first hear the name, I thought of Ricola, but that is a throat lozenge.  Since its’ IPO earlier this MONTH, shares of NKLA are up 93% and now have a market capitalization greater than Ford Motor company.  That is no big deal, really.  Except Nikola has no revenue….and of course profits for that matter.  They have a lot of debt of course, but in this upside-down world, maybe more debt and less revenue/profits = higher stock prices???  I am thinking that is it.  Maybe they will be an amazing company in a few years, but who is going to buy their expensive trucks when companies are cutting CAPEX, reducing costs, and just trying to survive.  Seems a tad overvalued to me.